A Psychologist Predicts the Oscars


Earlier, I ranked the Best Picture nominees based on quality, but now comes the fun of predicting who is going to win the big prizes of the Oscars.


With no clear front-runner in several categories, this year seems primed for some Oscar upset. The odds-makers see a photo finish between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards for Best Picture, but could Get Out sneak in?  



Here are the predictions for the major Oscar categories:

Best Supporting Actor – Sam Rockwell


While it could be Willem Dafoe’s year, I feel pretty confident the Oscar will go to Sam Rockwell.

Level of confidence: 85%

Best Supporting Actress – Allison Janey

Allison Janey in her role for I, Tonya.


It’s a close one between Laurie Metcalfe and Janey, both beloved multi-award winning actresses, but neither with even a single Oscar nomination before this year. Allison Janey has the slight edge.

Level of confidence: 65%


Best Actor – Gary Oldman

Gary Oldman in his role for Darkest Hour.


Take this one to the bank. Timothee Chalamet will get his Oscar, but not this year. Bet on Oldman to win.

Level of confidence: 95%

Best Actress – Frances McDormand

Frances McDormand in her role for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.


Another sure-bet. There’s not a close second here. Find someone to bet against her and you’ll mop up, for sure.

Level of confidence: 95%


Best Director – Guillermo del Toro

Guillermo del Toro is being nominated for Best Director of The Shape of Water.


This one could go sideways if the Academy voters are inclined to recognize Christopher Nolan for his work on Dunkirk or Jordan Peele for his directorial debut with Get Out. My guess is Best Director goes to Guillermo del Toro.

Level of confidence: 75%

Best Picture – The Shape of Water


Three Billboards has some momentum and Get Out has lots of love, but I think we’ll see Guillermo Del Toro’s adult fairy tale of a mute woman who falls for a swamp creature win the night.

Level of confidence: 65%


What do you think? Do you agree or disagree? Leave comments below or on Twitter. We’re looking forward to the big show!


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