A Psychologist Predicts the Oscar Nominations

While there are some sure bets for this year's Oscar noms, there are always some surprises and snubs.

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Tomorrow morning at the odd hour of 5:20 am PT, the Oscar nominations will be announced and while there are some sure bets, there are always some surprises and snubs.

It’s time for everyone’s final predictions for the slate of nominees. I’ve tried to get out of my own way and not let my personal favorites cloud my judgment. Instead, I’ve looked at the data–previous bellwether nominations and awards mostly–and make my best guesses.

Here are my predictions for the Big 6 categories, starting with Best Picture, which I put in alphabetical order, not by order of probability. In each category, I put an asterisk by the early favorite to win, but that could change dramatically in the weeks to come.

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star is Born*

Vice

Best Director

Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuaron – Roma*

Peter Farrelly – Green Book

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay – Vice

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

Ethan Hawk – First Reformed

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody*

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Best Actress

Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Glenn Close – The Wife*

Lady Gaga – A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book*

Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star is Born

Richard Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice*

Claire Foy – First Man

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Check back later to see how well I did. I’ll also be making Oscar winner predictions throughout the next month.

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