Tomorrow morning at the odd hour of 5:20 am PT, the Oscar nominations will be announced and while there are some sure bets, there are always some surprises and snubs.
It’s time for everyone’s final predictions for the slate of nominees. I’ve tried to get out of my own way and not let my personal favorites cloud my judgment. Instead, I’ve looked at the data–previous bellwether nominations and awards mostly–and make my best guesses.
Here are my predictions for the Big 6 categories, starting with Best Picture, which I put in alphabetical order, not by order of probability. In each category, I put an asterisk by the early favorite to win, but that could change dramatically in the weeks to come.
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born*
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma*
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay – Vice
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Ethan Hawk – First Reformed
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Glenn Close – The Wife*
Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali – Green Book*
Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
Richard Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – Vice*
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Check back later to see how well I did. I’ll also be making Oscar winner predictions throughout the next month.